Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 2.718313 3.190043 3.713464 4.336487 5.057040 5.863361 6.833242
2025-10-26 1.911350 2.518717 3.267540 4.254957 5.518737 7.077663 9.141799
2025-11-02 1.387225 2.017360 2.866513 4.086162 5.783296 8.049921 11.293118
2025-11-09 1.030053 1.632508 2.509452 3.865045 5.890417 8.782772 13.198500
2025-11-16 0.817641 1.397832 2.301358 3.790076 6.154864 9.730722 15.498630
2025-11-23 0.669625 1.226002 2.146727 3.752826 6.446554 10.730303 17.981014
2025-11-30 0.592182 1.152448 2.130903 3.925637 7.082308 12.327068 21.582086
2025-12-07 0.506811 1.045650 2.036225 3.941766 7.446816 13.514314 24.645229
2025-12-14 0.433872 0.946339 1.935359 3.925187 7.742109 14.607075 27.663284
2025-12-21 0.376890 0.866523 1.855828 3.931841 8.073226 15.791269 30.968054
2025-12-28 0.360140 0.867049 1.933003 4.253044 9.040395 18.238932 36.851193
2026-01-04 0.325553 0.821448 1.907394 4.359816 9.595475 19.968057 41.563514
2026-01-11 0.295042 0.780683 1.888561 4.484958 10.219740 21.932630 47.019031
2026-01-18 0.260299 0.722914 1.822974 4.499417 10.616746 23.498240 51.878937
2026-01-25 0.220904 0.644871 1.696875 4.356188 10.649522 24.317693 55.303646
2026-02-01 0.183537 0.563534 1.547789 4.133235 10.468193 24.656625 57.745868
2026-02-08 0.159277 0.512633 1.465123 4.057599 10.616451 25.726871 61.890871
2026-02-15 0.140135 0.472019 1.401618 4.019387 10.847682 27.006700 66.641543
2026-02-22 0.132142 0.463236 1.422281 4.204289 11.656087 29.704966 74.923469
2026-03-01 0.118927 0.434941 1.383336 4.221700 12.038923 31.438187 81.125801
2026-03-08 0.106191 0.405161 1.334667 4.204087 12.327361 32.974560 87.020598
2026-03-15 0.095712 0.380518 1.296790 4.211213 12.683046 34.715842 93.599519
2026-03-22 0.095133 0.390886 1.368711 4.553831 14.008914 39.049258 107.077539